What size bit are you using? How much stickout?
How are you measuring the deflection under 15 kg load?
How are you holding the workpiece?
I don't think it's lost steps. you'd see some stairstepping probably. You should be able to determine if it is by referencing the spindle position to something very accurately, running one of these cuts, then seeing if the spindle still lines up to the reference.
It may just be how the wood cuts. The edge may get pulled into the cutter as it's cutting.