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  1. #21
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    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    Hopefully a good portion of those skilled workers will go on to start small businesses instead of taking minimum wage jobs. That's the double edged sword for large companies. As machinery costs fall and they replace more and more skilled workers with robots and computers, there will be an ever increasing number of people starting competing businesses.

    We are seeing this first in the retail sector. Look at Toy R Us. They put a majority of the small independent toy stores out of business. Now, they have been put out of business by the thousand of small business selling toys online through eBay and Amazon.

    Low cost CNC machines will eventually cause a similar result in other sectors because the barriers to entry are so low for small manufacturing businesses. It used to require millions of dollars in investment or the scale to source from China. Now people can start manufacturing with tens of thousands.
    It's still fairly niche but I already see a lot of businesses selling 3D printed and CNC machines parts on eBay in some areas (like airsoft and firearms parts).



  2. #22
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    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    A lot of us have created our own shops
    Shops still pay top dollar around these parts , a button pusher basically starts at 18-20/hr .
    Low cost cnc's will help some companies that make low tolerance parts , but the companies that need precision and solid machines will always need top of the line machinery . I can't see the day coming that a 200K part will be getting machined on a 20 k cnc

    A poet knows no boundary yet he is bound to the boundaries of ones own mind !! ........


  3. #23
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    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    Quote Originally Posted by dertsap View Post
    A lot of us have created our own shops
    Shops still pay top dollar around these parts , a button pusher basically starts at 18-20/hr .
    Low cost cnc's will help some companies that make low tolerance parts , but the companies that need precision and solid machines will always need top of the line machinery . I can't see the day coming that a 200K part will be getting machined on a 20 k cnc

    I like to hear things like that (about previous skilled employees going on to start their own businesses).

    "Top dollar" is a matter of opinion and industry dependent though. I used to have a guy working for me who previously worked as a press minder for an old-school printer. He had a $220,000 salary (in 2001) and he was always complaining about how he made more money as a press minder (from all his overtime). It's jobs like that which vanish with digital technology and that's part of the reason why the middle classes are disappearing from America.

    $20 / hour might seem like nice money in some areas but it's in the working class category imo. A lot of highly skilled manufacturing workers earned way more in the analog days.

    It's people starting their own businesses that will help us start to reverse the growing wealth gap and hopefully prevent us turning into a 3rd world nation. The current stats are freightening. Less than 30% of Americans have more than $1,000 in savings and less than 10% have more than $10,000. What people need is higher salaries more than tarrifs.

    I don't think tarrifs will help anyone that actually needs it. I think there is a good chance it will hurt people because other countries will retaliate with their own. It's already hurting farmers (apparently).

    To me, it sounds like that old "trickle down" mentality that we all know doesn't work. The assumption that employers will increase wages if only tax was lower or If their were tarrifs to prevent competition from cheap Chinese goods, or if there was less regulation etc is just not true. People are inherantly greedy and business owners have little incentive to trickle money down from their bank account to their employees if they don't have to.



  4. #24
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    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    Quote Originally Posted by Goemon View Post
    I like to hear things like that (about previous skilled employees going on to start their own businesses).

    "Top dollar" is a matter of opinion and industry dependent though. I used to have a guy working for me who previously worked as a press minder for an old-school printer. He had a $220,000 salary (in 2001) and he was always complaining about how he made more money as a press minder (from all his overtime). It's jobs like that which vanish with digital technology and that's part of the reason why the middle classes are disappearing from America.

    $20 / hour might seem like nice money in some areas but it's in the working class category imo. A lot of highly skilled manufacturing workers earned way more in the analog days.

    It's people starting their own businesses that will help us start to reverse the growing wealth gap and hopefully prevent us turning into a 3rd world nation. The current stats are freightening. Less than 30% of Americans have more than $1,000 in savings and less than 10% have more than $10,000. What people need is higher salaries more than tarrifs.

    I don't think tarrifs will help anyone that actually needs it. I think there is a good chance it will hurt people because other countries will retaliate with their own. It's already hurting farmers (apparently).

    To me, it sounds like that old "trickle down" mentality that we all know doesn't work. The assumption that employers will increase wages if only tax was lower or If their were tarrifs to prevent competition from cheap Chinese goods, or if there was less regulation etc is just not true. People are inherantly greedy and business owners have little incentive to trickle money down from their bank account to their employees if they don't have to.

    There is still alot of young blood flowing into the trade , it's not just the previous skilled . When I said top dollar I was talking about top dollar within the trade . the 20/hr was stated as a starting point for button pushers (generally kids) who as they gain experience will earn more . I've never seen a machinist making 200k plus as an employee , the wages are still humble but comfortable even at top dollar .
    Minimum wage doesn't fly in this corner of the country because you can't buy a humble home for less than 1M , condo's and townhouses maybe but in the lesser desired areas . I don't know about elsewhere but middle class is still the majority .
    Tariffs hurt everyone in the end , it has a domino effect and every country will impose them as they see fit and inflation rates are going to sky rocket , the only people who will benefit are the big outfits that know how to work the system

    A poet knows no boundary yet he is bound to the boundaries of ones own mind !! ........


  5. #25
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    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    First of all lets define what a tariff actually is and does.......

    For a start, if you buy an item made in China etc you will pay 20% more for that item.........I ask again WHO GETS THE MONEY?????....it certainly is not the manufacturers.

    It would have been far better if Trump had made a declaration to pay everyone who manufactures in the USA a 20% rebate for their output instead of a stupid tariff on imports......this won't upset the Chinese, Russians et al, but it would please the investors in US manufacturing.......overnight, anything made in the USA would be 20% cheaper.

    Talk about a double wammy........at the moment when the home manufacturers make items they will inevitably have to include components sourced from a foreign import because you now don't make them yourself.........it will take at least 10 years for the home machine to catch up and start making those parts.........by that time you will have paid many times the item price due to all the tariffs applied.

    It will take someone with a deep pocket and a very long hindsight to invest in an industry that is not on stream for the next 10 years.

    At the same time, how do you apply a tariff to all those imported items that the home market has outsourced to China etc?

    I doubt that they will pull out of China and start producing in the US when the narrow profit margin dwindles even further.....they outsourced in the first instance to try and match the Foreign manufacturers prices but still didn't make it.

    BTW........I spent the last 15 years of my working life before retirement..........1985 to 2000...... tooling up CNC machines so I'm well aware of the difference between old school capstan handle crankers and CNC button pushers.........at the same time I never had to work on one to realise the difference.

    Tariffs are punitive methods whereas rebates are incentives.
    Ian..



  6. #26

    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    Tariffs are punitive, but that is why there is a system for other countries to apply for relief from them. Giving rebates to American companies sounds great, but we can’t afford that and it certainly wouldn’t be sustainable. The tariffs are being targeted at countries like China because they don’t trade fairly. China already has massive tariffs on American goods (30%+ in some cases). I don’t know the current statistic, but in 2010 they bought 28 cents of American goods for every $1 we spent in China, largely due to the tariffs they have in place. Every time I get work visitors from there they want to spend their downtime shopping because a lot of American goods cost twice as much in China.

    All that said, i don’t necessarily agree with the tariffs and doubt they will stay in affect long term. However, if they do it may hurt some areas, but it will also create opportunity in others. Much bigger changes than this have happened in the last 100 years yet unemployment has always hovered around 4.5 - 5.5%. It spikes occasionally, but always makes it back there.

    Regarding unemployment, I have to disagree with the comments about CNC or automation stealing all the jobs. It might take over some tasks, but those are usually repetitive tasks where a persons time, skills and intellect can be better used elsewhere. Technology has grown leaps and bounds over the last 30-40 years, but our unemployment is largely unchanged due to it. For every job role it has replaced it has created opportunity elsewhere.

    Lastly, China didn’t steal our jobs as some people have stated. We lost some American manufacturing due to so many products being sourced from China because we (Americans in general) chose to buy lower cost goods from China. The buyer is the one that makes the choice where to buy, not the seller. Same goes for large and small companies. Someone said Toys R Us put the small toy shops out of business, but all they did is offer a different buying option. The consumer put the small company out of business by choosing to spend their money elsewhere.




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  7. #27
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    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    Well, if you subsidise the manufacturing community to the tune of 20% they get a direct shot in the arm to make it worth while to employ more people and manufacture.

    A lot depends on the priorities....a war machine takes preference in some minds, or going to Mars also, whereas the ability to make and sell products is a life blood creator for increased employment opportunities..

    You can subsidise the manufacturing community from agriculture as you have a lot of very fertile land.....and food is one item no one wants to put a tariff on if you cannot grow enough yourself.

    I suppose you could also write the manufacturing part off as it's too tough to compete against cheap labour and get everyone digging for victory and making food.......that is one saleable item that will sell big time given the continuing population explosion World wide.

    I think more will get richer selling food internationally than a few trying to sell bits of metal, and food generation is a sustainable product......anyone can dig a hole.....LOL.
    Ian.



  8. #28
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    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    Ian you dont know what you are talking about when it comes to CNC haveing and useing are two very different things, And there are new high order machine shops popping up all the time in the US.

    Most shops if they get a robot they ever get a new staff member or one upskills to run the robot and other machines.

    Button pushers are a dime a dozen someone that can QC, prove code, make code more efficient and do setup on multiple machines are rear at the moment, that's starting to change fast.

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  9. #29
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    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    Well Dan, with the new tariffs firmly in place and that bit of news I expect the USA will now be ruling the World once again.

    Pity China is streets ahead of them on the production output so they not only have to catch up but also become better at supplying the goods......who's going to do that???.....the infrastructure for manufacture has been killed off by their own people buying foreign and no one wants to invest in a dead horse.

    Incidentally......a tariff is supposed to make (encourage) the people buy from the home manufacture instead of importing...........if the home manufacture is geared to fill the needs of the home community, because the goods are too expensive as exports due to foreign tariff tit for tat practices , there won't be any exports to earn dollars ......talk about Peter paying Paul.

    Some time back I read an article about a guy who lost his job because his firm decided to automate the part handling process and buy in a robot to do the pick and place work........eventually they had to employ another guy to move the finished items that piled up as well as the high tech operator who was too busy to do that while minding the robot......is that job creation gone mad?
    Ian.



  10. #30
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    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    there are far fewer skilled jobs than there used to be
    I don't think that's true. Economically, the reason we want everybody in society to work, is that this causes society to produce the most possible goods. And the reason to produce goods is for us, the society, to enjoy. That's the very basics of economics. (Other things like capitalism, free markets, regulation, and so on, are approaches to trying to fulfill this basic need.)

    So, unless you believe that somehow people couldn't use fancier/better/newer stuff at all, then there's always some need for more work. There are two things getting in the way of everybody always working to provide for everybody:
    - Some people may not be able to do the kinds of work that there is demand for. It is totally possible that, once robots can do most of the grunt work, some people simply cannot be educated, or educate themselves, to the point where they can contribute. This would be sad, and I think if we brought back apprenticeships, we might be able to train more people than we do today.
    - Various barriers get in the way of producing what people want to consume. Wages for normal people may be so low that they can't afford the things we could produce. Scarce resources may be needed, that someone controls, and prefers to use for other means. Buying/building/designing manufacturing lines for goods requires skills and capital that may not be readily available, so even if the economy could sustain it if we had it, the cost of getting there is somehow too high.

    But, in general, "there are no jobs" is not actually ever the truth. "People for some reason aren't able or willing to spend their time producing things that other people want' is the real problem. (And "the market price is too low" affects the "willing" bit.)

    Maybe what we should produce more of is vacation days, at the present standard of living? I'd be down for that :-D

    Or, to put it another way: There is a very deep market for skilled web developers, game creators, cancer doctors, movie effects animators, ER nurses, mobile phone engineers, and so forth. It's just that the skilled trades that used to be plentiful, have moved on, and have moved on faster than our way of educating people has managed to keep up. But there is never the case that "society can't possibly produce more things that people would want" -- people always want more, so there is always a need for more people to work more. Our market just hasn't figured out how to properly match that need with available people.

    Last edited by jwatte; 07-08-2018 at 01:51 PM.


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Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

Will new tariffs affect our hobby?