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Thread: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

  1. #25
    Gold Member handlewanker's Avatar
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    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    First of all lets define what a tariff actually is and does.......

    For a start, if you buy an item made in China etc you will pay 20% more for that item.........I ask again WHO GETS THE MONEY?????....it certainly is not the manufacturers.

    It would have been far better if Trump had made a declaration to pay everyone who manufactures in the USA a 20% rebate for their output instead of a stupid tariff on imports......this won't upset the Chinese, Russians et al, but it would please the investors in US manufacturing.......overnight, anything made in the USA would be 20% cheaper.

    Talk about a double wammy........at the moment when the home manufacturers make items they will inevitably have to include components sourced from a foreign import because you now don't make them yourself.........it will take at least 10 years for the home machine to catch up and start making those parts.........by that time you will have paid many times the item price due to all the tariffs applied.

    It will take someone with a deep pocket and a very long hindsight to invest in an industry that is not on stream for the next 10 years.

    At the same time, how do you apply a tariff to all those imported items that the home market has outsourced to China etc?

    I doubt that they will pull out of China and start producing in the US when the narrow profit margin dwindles even further.....they outsourced in the first instance to try and match the Foreign manufacturers prices but still didn't make it.

    BTW........I spent the last 15 years of my working life before retirement..........1985 to 2000...... tooling up CNC machines so I'm well aware of the difference between old school capstan handle crankers and CNC button pushers.........at the same time I never had to work on one to realise the difference.

    Tariffs are punitive methods whereas rebates are incentives.
    Ian..



  2. #26
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    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    Tariffs are punitive, but that is why there is a system for other countries to apply for relief from them. Giving rebates to American companies sounds great, but we can’t afford that and it certainly wouldn’t be sustainable. The tariffs are being targeted at countries like China because they don’t trade fairly. China already has massive tariffs on American goods (30%+ in some cases). I don’t know the current statistic, but in 2010 they bought 28 cents of American goods for every $1 we spent in China, largely due to the tariffs they have in place. Every time I get work visitors from there they want to spend their downtime shopping because a lot of American goods cost twice as much in China.

    All that said, i don’t necessarily agree with the tariffs and doubt they will stay in affect long term. However, if they do it may hurt some areas, but it will also create opportunity in others. Much bigger changes than this have happened in the last 100 years yet unemployment has always hovered around 4.5 - 5.5%. It spikes occasionally, but always makes it back there.

    Regarding unemployment, I have to disagree with the comments about CNC or automation stealing all the jobs. It might take over some tasks, but those are usually repetitive tasks where a persons time, skills and intellect can be better used elsewhere. Technology has grown leaps and bounds over the last 30-40 years, but our unemployment is largely unchanged due to it. For every job role it has replaced it has created opportunity elsewhere.

    Lastly, China didn’t steal our jobs as some people have stated. We lost some American manufacturing due to so many products being sourced from China because we (Americans in general) chose to buy lower cost goods from China. The buyer is the one that makes the choice where to buy, not the seller. Same goes for large and small companies. Someone said Toys R Us put the small toy shops out of business, but all they did is offer a different buying option. The consumer put the small company out of business by choosing to spend their money elsewhere.




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  3. #27
    Gold Member handlewanker's Avatar
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    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    Well, if you subsidise the manufacturing community to the tune of 20% they get a direct shot in the arm to make it worth while to employ more people and manufacture.

    A lot depends on the priorities....a war machine takes preference in some minds, or going to Mars also, whereas the ability to make and sell products is a life blood creator for increased employment opportunities..

    You can subsidise the manufacturing community from agriculture as you have a lot of very fertile land.....and food is one item no one wants to put a tariff on if you cannot grow enough yourself.

    I suppose you could also write the manufacturing part off as it's too tough to compete against cheap labour and get everyone digging for victory and making food.......that is one saleable item that will sell big time given the continuing population explosion World wide.

    I think more will get richer selling food internationally than a few trying to sell bits of metal, and food generation is a sustainable product......anyone can dig a hole.....LOL.
    Ian.



  4. #28
    Gold Member daniellyall's Avatar
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    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    Ian you dont know what you are talking about when it comes to CNC haveing and useing are two very different things, And there are new high order machine shops popping up all the time in the US.

    Most shops if they get a robot they ever get a new staff member or one upskills to run the robot and other machines.

    Button pushers are a dime a dozen someone that can QC, prove code, make code more efficient and do setup on multiple machines are rear at the moment, that's starting to change fast.

    Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    Being Disabled is OK CNC is For fuN


  5. #29
    Gold Member handlewanker's Avatar
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    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    Well Dan, with the new tariffs firmly in place and that bit of news I expect the USA will now be ruling the World once again.

    Pity China is streets ahead of them on the production output so they not only have to catch up but also become better at supplying the goods......who's going to do that???.....the infrastructure for manufacture has been killed off by their own people buying foreign and no one wants to invest in a dead horse.

    Incidentally......a tariff is supposed to make (encourage) the people buy from the home manufacture instead of importing...........if the home manufacture is geared to fill the needs of the home community, because the goods are too expensive as exports due to foreign tariff tit for tat practices , there won't be any exports to earn dollars ......talk about Peter paying Paul.

    Some time back I read an article about a guy who lost his job because his firm decided to automate the part handling process and buy in a robot to do the pick and place work........eventually they had to employ another guy to move the finished items that piled up as well as the high tech operator who was too busy to do that while minding the robot......is that job creation gone mad?
    Ian.



  6. #30
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    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    there are far fewer skilled jobs than there used to be
    I don't think that's true. Economically, the reason we want everybody in society to work, is that this causes society to produce the most possible goods. And the reason to produce goods is for us, the society, to enjoy. That's the very basics of economics. (Other things like capitalism, free markets, regulation, and so on, are approaches to trying to fulfill this basic need.)

    So, unless you believe that somehow people couldn't use fancier/better/newer stuff at all, then there's always some need for more work. There are two things getting in the way of everybody always working to provide for everybody:
    - Some people may not be able to do the kinds of work that there is demand for. It is totally possible that, once robots can do most of the grunt work, some people simply cannot be educated, or educate themselves, to the point where they can contribute. This would be sad, and I think if we brought back apprenticeships, we might be able to train more people than we do today.
    - Various barriers get in the way of producing what people want to consume. Wages for normal people may be so low that they can't afford the things we could produce. Scarce resources may be needed, that someone controls, and prefers to use for other means. Buying/building/designing manufacturing lines for goods requires skills and capital that may not be readily available, so even if the economy could sustain it if we had it, the cost of getting there is somehow too high.

    But, in general, "there are no jobs" is not actually ever the truth. "People for some reason aren't able or willing to spend their time producing things that other people want' is the real problem. (And "the market price is too low" affects the "willing" bit.)

    Maybe what we should produce more of is vacation days, at the present standard of living? I'd be down for that :-D

    Or, to put it another way: There is a very deep market for skilled web developers, game creators, cancer doctors, movie effects animators, ER nurses, mobile phone engineers, and so forth. It's just that the skilled trades that used to be plentiful, have moved on, and have moved on faster than our way of educating people has managed to keep up. But there is never the case that "society can't possibly produce more things that people would want" -- people always want more, so there is always a need for more people to work more. Our market just hasn't figured out how to properly match that need with available people.

    Last edited by jwatte; 07-08-2018 at 01:51 PM.


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Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

Will new tariffs affect our hobby?