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  1. #13
    Gold Member daniellyall's Avatar
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    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    What countries have and still do put rockets into spaces and farm out by components there's about 10 000 shops in that

    Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    Being Disabled is OK CNC is For fuN


  2. #14
    Gold Member handlewanker's Avatar
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    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    Yeah, all internal spending, no exports to make the nation affluent again as is reqd to ensure prosperity for all.

    I can't see an expedition to Mars putting bread on the table for the average American.......without the internal infrastructure being upgraded to create jobs, nobody is going to applaud the Mars landing except those that have the tax payer's money to play with......I could think of better ways to spend a hundred billion dollars without even getting out of bed.

    I would like to see just one advantage a tariff would give the US......China, Russia and India can think of quite a few in their favour.......LOL.
    Ian.



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    Gold Member dertsap's Avatar
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    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    China is responsible for cheap low quality parts . There are a lot of fields that still need high precision quality parts and that stuff does not go to China . They can't be trusted to get the proper certs for the materials , nor can they be trusted to properly heat treat parts that can blow apart and kill someone . Manufacturing is far from dead . If I decided to drop my manufacturing business , I could walk out the door in the morning and have a top paying job by noon and chances are that one or 2 phone calls would suffice . If a shop is good at what it puts out then it will survive , if the workers are skilled enough they will survive . Button pushers are a dime a dozen qualified guys always have a job

    A poet knows no boundary yet he is bound to the boundaries of ones own mind !! ........


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    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    Now for a non-political answer !!!

    Will it stop you from building your dream if it costs 10% more on 25% of your items?

    Don



  5. #17
    Community Moderator ger21's Avatar
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    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    It might if 90% of your components cost 25% more.

    Gerry

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    (Note: The opinions expressed in this post are my own and are not necessarily those of CNCzone and its management)


  6. #18
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    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    Quote Originally Posted by LazyMan View Post
    Lol I agree at, "china stole our jobs" nonsense. I'm a small American employer and machines stole your jobs. I replace as many people as I can with machines because some people can be downright useless, and machines are reliable and cheaper. Not to mention, the government keeps pushing their bureaucracy and regulations on us giving us every incentive to replace people with machines as much as possible. It's do or die. Increasing tariffs on Chinese goods will just decrease competition and allow American companies to get away with making junk.

    It's not a one or the other scenario. Both factors played a part. I know more than I want to on this topic as global sourcing and outsourcing was my world for 10 (very long) years.

    When we used to advise large companies on where they could save money through sourcing from low cost markets like China and India, we looked for labor intensive processes that were not time sensative. The more automated a production process was, the less savings there were in places like China. Low cost labor was pretty much the only reason to go through the pain of off-shore sourcing and shipping goods 5000 miles.

    Plenty of large companies have outsourced American and European jobs to countries like China. That's a fact. There used to be a huge manufacturing industry here and the use of off-shore labor is a huge part of why it declined to present levels.

    More recently, as you said, companies are eliminating these jobs all togeather through automation, or drastically deskilling them to replace skilled workers with low paid low skill ones.

    Automation is a double edged sword for us. One the one hand, it takes away China's main advantage for low cost manufacturing. On the other hand, there are far fewer skilled jobs than there used to be.

    I keep wondering what happens when people start to realize the obvious and inevitable conclusion. With a constantly growing population and the shrinking number of jobs, eventually there will be a portion of the population that won't be able to work at all.

    I can't think of one job that we won't be able to automate one day. My wife still works in that business and she is currently working on a project to replace expensive lawyers with software.... I don't feel sorry for the lawyers for some reason....



  7. #19
    Gold Member handlewanker's Avatar
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    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    I suppose the answer to the problem would have to be.....don't buy foreign if home goods are available.........LOL.......but home goods aren't being made because the cheaper foreign gods are on the shelves and the tariffs make it non competitive to make it in the home market.

    What fool will willingly pay 100% more for a home produced item when he/she can buy foreign made cheaper.

    I expect it will take 10 years at least to get the US machine industry into a nearly competitive top gear.......much good that will be when the market is still buying foreign made goods in the meantime and another political machine is calling the tune.....IE, no tariffs, so the industry will not be as we know it.

    BTW........when would a skilled man work a production machine.....that's for semi skilled workers.....nobody in his right mind would want to tramp the boards day after day minding a machine for a pittance......they have to take a pittance if the boss wants to make money from him......he won't make money paying high wages to a skilled worker against the foreign labour rates.

    The skill level has now been transferred from the man to the machine....push the button, run the program and get the parts time after time, all the same.....LOL, you could train monkeys to do that

    Being a time served skilled worker I'd go bonkers if I had to do that for a living.

    I still want to know where all that money is going to go when the tariffs are applied......it comes out of the buyers pocket and straight into the political machine's bottomless bucket.......a whole department in the Treasury will have to be created to manage it........jobs for the boys..
    Ian.



  8. #20
    Gold Member dertsap's Avatar
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    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    Quote Originally Posted by handlewanker View Post
    I
    The skill level has now been transferred from the man to the machine....push the button, run the program and get the parts time after time, all the same.....LOL, you could train monkeys to do that

    Being a time served skilled worker I'd go bonkers if I had to do that for a living.

    .
    That is absolute horse **** . You seem to paint a blanket picture of the cnc industry as being nothing but making millions of tiny bs parts at a time , you clearly have no clue of what has taken over the old ways of doing things . There are jobbing shops all over the place that would make your head spin with the parts that come out . The industry has evolved , so has the skill level . A lot of the old ways of thinking have been carried over to cnc , the big difference is that there are no more handles being cranked . Machinery handbook is still in most guys boxes for a reason .
    You seem hell bent on minimizing a trade that has evolved , instead you'd rather glorify an old way of producing products . I don't see any glory in some old toad who was shoved into a corner drilling the same hole in the same miserable parts , day after day , year after year (did someone say monkey) . The old ways of production are long dead and with good reason .
    I find it interesting that I can jump onto any old manual machine and have it machining something in no time , and a manual guy wouldn't know where to start on a cnc , yet my skill level is the one that you want to insult with your redundant superiority

    Why do you even come to a cnc forum when all you do is insult the industry

    A poet knows no boundary yet he is bound to the boundaries of ones own mind !! ........


  9. #21
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    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    Hopefully a good portion of those skilled workers will go on to start small businesses instead of taking minimum wage jobs. That's the double edged sword for large companies. As machinery costs fall and they replace more and more skilled workers with robots and computers, there will be an ever increasing number of people starting competing businesses.

    We are seeing this first in the retail sector. Look at Toy R Us. They put a majority of the small independent toy stores out of business. Now, they have been put out of business by the thousand of small business selling toys online through eBay and Amazon.

    Low cost CNC machines will eventually cause a similar result in other sectors because the barriers to entry are so low for small manufacturing businesses. It used to require millions of dollars in investment or the scale to source from China. Now people can start manufacturing with tens of thousands.
    It's still fairly niche but I already see a lot of businesses selling 3D printed and CNC machines parts on eBay in some areas (like airsoft and firearms parts).



  10. #22
    Gold Member dertsap's Avatar
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    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    A lot of us have created our own shops
    Shops still pay top dollar around these parts , a button pusher basically starts at 18-20/hr .
    Low cost cnc's will help some companies that make low tolerance parts , but the companies that need precision and solid machines will always need top of the line machinery . I can't see the day coming that a 200K part will be getting machined on a 20 k cnc

    A poet knows no boundary yet he is bound to the boundaries of ones own mind !! ........


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    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    Quote Originally Posted by dertsap View Post
    A lot of us have created our own shops
    Shops still pay top dollar around these parts , a button pusher basically starts at 18-20/hr .
    Low cost cnc's will help some companies that make low tolerance parts , but the companies that need precision and solid machines will always need top of the line machinery . I can't see the day coming that a 200K part will be getting machined on a 20 k cnc

    I like to hear things like that (about previous skilled employees going on to start their own businesses).

    "Top dollar" is a matter of opinion and industry dependent though. I used to have a guy working for me who previously worked as a press minder for an old-school printer. He had a $220,000 salary (in 2001) and he was always complaining about how he made more money as a press minder (from all his overtime). It's jobs like that which vanish with digital technology and that's part of the reason why the middle classes are disappearing from America.

    $20 / hour might seem like nice money in some areas but it's in the working class category imo. A lot of highly skilled manufacturing workers earned way more in the analog days.

    It's people starting their own businesses that will help us start to reverse the growing wealth gap and hopefully prevent us turning into a 3rd world nation. The current stats are freightening. Less than 30% of Americans have more than $1,000 in savings and less than 10% have more than $10,000. What people need is higher salaries more than tarrifs.

    I don't think tarrifs will help anyone that actually needs it. I think there is a good chance it will hurt people because other countries will retaliate with their own. It's already hurting farmers (apparently).

    To me, it sounds like that old "trickle down" mentality that we all know doesn't work. The assumption that employers will increase wages if only tax was lower or If their were tarrifs to prevent competition from cheap Chinese goods, or if there was less regulation etc is just not true. People are inherantly greedy and business owners have little incentive to trickle money down from their bank account to their employees if they don't have to.



  12. #24
    Gold Member dertsap's Avatar
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    Default Re: Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

    Quote Originally Posted by Goemon View Post
    I like to hear things like that (about previous skilled employees going on to start their own businesses).

    "Top dollar" is a matter of opinion and industry dependent though. I used to have a guy working for me who previously worked as a press minder for an old-school printer. He had a $220,000 salary (in 2001) and he was always complaining about how he made more money as a press minder (from all his overtime). It's jobs like that which vanish with digital technology and that's part of the reason why the middle classes are disappearing from America.

    $20 / hour might seem like nice money in some areas but it's in the working class category imo. A lot of highly skilled manufacturing workers earned way more in the analog days.

    It's people starting their own businesses that will help us start to reverse the growing wealth gap and hopefully prevent us turning into a 3rd world nation. The current stats are freightening. Less than 30% of Americans have more than $1,000 in savings and less than 10% have more than $10,000. What people need is higher salaries more than tarrifs.

    I don't think tarrifs will help anyone that actually needs it. I think there is a good chance it will hurt people because other countries will retaliate with their own. It's already hurting farmers (apparently).

    To me, it sounds like that old "trickle down" mentality that we all know doesn't work. The assumption that employers will increase wages if only tax was lower or If their were tarrifs to prevent competition from cheap Chinese goods, or if there was less regulation etc is just not true. People are inherantly greedy and business owners have little incentive to trickle money down from their bank account to their employees if they don't have to.

    There is still alot of young blood flowing into the trade , it's not just the previous skilled . When I said top dollar I was talking about top dollar within the trade . the 20/hr was stated as a starting point for button pushers (generally kids) who as they gain experience will earn more . I've never seen a machinist making 200k plus as an employee , the wages are still humble but comfortable even at top dollar .
    Minimum wage doesn't fly in this corner of the country because you can't buy a humble home for less than 1M , condo's and townhouses maybe but in the lesser desired areas . I don't know about elsewhere but middle class is still the majority .
    Tariffs hurt everyone in the end , it has a domino effect and every country will impose them as they see fit and inflation rates are going to sky rocket , the only people who will benefit are the big outfits that know how to work the system

    A poet knows no boundary yet he is bound to the boundaries of ones own mind !! ........


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Will new tariffs affect our hobby?

Will new tariffs affect our hobby?