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"Naturally, our own irrational demands strike us as
having the force of needs, while other people's
needs strike us as capricious indulgences."
- - Daphne Merkin
Based on the assumption that that assumption is correct, and you know what they say about assume.....The estimate is based on the assumption that temperatures will increase from 1990 levels by an average of 2.8 C in 2050 and 4.8 C at the end of the century.
Those numbers are from IPCC models, and those models have proven to be unable to predict what is known to have happened, totally discrediting their ability to predict what will happen.