Economic indicators - which do you use?

[Chris D]

When I was working in machine tool sales, we always were watching the "economic indicators" to forecast our sales for the comming months/year etc.

The one that always seemed accurate that we used, was also a bit late, but very accurate. It worked this way and it is very easy to monitor....

Using two trade magazines, at that time MetlFax and Modern Machine Shop, measure their thickness every month. Chart it out on graph paper as you would with any sample of data. With this chart you can see: the history, the present, and a trend towards to future.

I believe MetlFax went out of business - so that indicator didn't look too promising. Modern Machine Shop never recovered beyond .3125" thick in nearly 6 years. So, based on my economic indicators, we are either out of business, or in a horrid slump with no signs of recovery.

I have also noticed that during the last few years that the braniacs in Washington and on Wall street are not seeing the same economic indicators that I am, as they felt the economy was growing strong during that period. Or pehaps they just don't see the importance of a strong manufacturing base in the U.S. economy.

Seeing as this is a manufacturing related group, I suspect you folks have your reliable economic indicators you would like to share with others?

Chris :-)

[High Seas]

Number of posts per day -- Or does that indicate slack time at work?

[unterhaus]

Originally Posted by High Seas Number of posts per day -- Or does that indicate slack time at work?

Ok, that's funny. But it is inversly proportional, until the posts die out entirely. That's when we know everybody lost their job.

So the more posts, the worse the economic indicator.

[spalm]

Size of the Want Ads in the local paper seem to give the same indication. Not just for manufacturing but also the economy as a whole.

[ynneb]

Is this what you meant? This is what I use http://www.tradetrakker.com/

[posix]

So the more posts, the worse the economic indicator.

yes it's a progressive thing, but there is a paradox which says that at the very peak of number of posts+1 the number of posts will equal zero - due to everyone having lost their jobs. it's one of those string theory paradoxes...

basically my economic forecasting method is as follows:
dig into your pockets. if you hear paper rubbing off paper the economy is good.
if you hear metal knocking on metal then things are getting worse.
if it's cloth on cloth rough times are imminent.

[Chris D]

Welp, I think the economy is trending downward. This months MMS is only .187" thick :-)

Chris

[50062040]

we do a poll, how many of us ate lobsters this morning vs how many of us ate kelloggs. the more kellogs buyers, the more we need to start saving.

another idea for one is a count of how many bridgeports are for sale on ebay. the less the demand for machine shop services the more bridgeports need to be sold.

medved quotetracker is another good freeware.

[posix]

kelloggs? in that one of those expensive breakfast cereals?

[WayneHill]

Talk to a packaging container company. They make cardboard boxes for shipping finished products. That is a good indicator.

[pminmo]

My neighbor sells cardboard, his business has reflected economic swings.

Going back to the CncZone posts. My 2 cents, more posts reflect more entrepreneurs which will mean more robustness in the economy. The era of big corporations maybe on the downside. In this technological age when things changes so fast, the big corporation is like aircraft carrier with a small rudder, big and bulky and slow to respond. Change is inevitable (except pie 3.14159..... ) Maybe the big car makers will go the way of the horse and buggy and blacksmith because of this. Are we in a new era? Not one size fits all. In thirty years will we be going to a showroom to see the new 2037 models, or will we go to some companies that you sit down and design your car selecting from an array of chassis sizes, engine sizes and types, body styles and materials, interior configuration, colors............ get a virtual simulation of the finished product, how it feels, how it drives, economics of the energy source selected.............
Place an order with a builder that has a supply line to the detail manufactures and he warranties his deliverable based on the warranties of the suppliers. i.e. competition?

[posix]

Phil, as they say: history has a funny way of repeating itself. So blue-chips will die out eventually. I myself am a firm believer in small to medium businesses.
Now IS the time to go local and not global.