manufacturing and the USA

[MBG]

Where does everybody think manufacturing in the usa is going to be within the next say 5 years.??

[mxtras]

I really don't want to think about it......

With the rising prices of energy, labor costs are going to be going through the roof soon - as if they are not high enough already. Insurance costs, medical costs - everything in the states is on a historic rise.

The US manufacturing community will find overseas options much more attractive in the coming year - I have no doubts about that. It's business.

Scott

[MBG]

yea... I Guess we are screwed.. this sucks... Is there any work for us in china?? :\??

[Caprirs]

Depends on who you are. The lower level skills will keep getting outsourced. However, try as they might, the rest of the world cannot match the USA at the higher level skills regardless of the field/industry. The key to job security in the future will be to continue to learn and grow. It will be increasingly difficult to simply learn one trade and then find a job for life. Automotive mechanics cannot survive without re-training and keeping up to date with the changes in the field. Would you go to a doctor that hasn't had an ounce of training since leaving med school? Or do you assume he spends a certain amount of time reading the trade journals and going to seminars to learn the latest techniques, methods and technologies?

The easier it is to learn the job, the easier it will be to find someone else to do it for less money. Thus, to maintain a higher wage in this country, the individual's skill level has to remain high and not stagnate. Since companies are cutting training more frequently and investing less in the individual employee, it's up to the employee to keep his knowledge and skills up to date. That may mean reading some more books, changing jobs to learn new skills, enrolling in schools, etc.

I think the West cannot be beaten for high quality work and skill. However, I also think many in this country have an attitude of entitlement and believe the responsibility for education/training falls on the government/employer instead of belonging to the individual. Look after yourself and your future and you will come through just fine while the company that "saved" money tanks somewhere down the road.

[MBG]

that is good to hear... Yes I am improving on my education now..I am working at a tool and mold shop now and at the same time at nights going to school for engineering... I just hope we still have manufacturing in this country to be able to use that...

but if what you said is right looks like I am on the right track.... I mean i'm 20 years old I don't have to much knowledge in this field. I just wnet to trade school to learn it and that is it about a month on the job now... :\...

[DieGuy]

Thirty years ago when I started one could work their way in with a pure apprenticship. Even then it was 4 years of night school with on the job 6 days a week. The more education the more valuable you become. The more you understand and learn the more valuable you become.

I just don't know how people that don't make some real money are going to survive in this country, The rising cost of everything and the off-shoring of middle class job has to hit critical mass at some point. Eventually there will be insuffient buyers of the consumer goods being brought in the country.

[MBG]

yea I know... I just heard on CNBC that they said and I quote "any supplier that gets 20% or more of their jobs from delphi is in risk of going down"... well looks like my nice new job is no more.. :\...

[miljnor]

I think that the job market will eventialy I think that the job market will eventually turn around, it just how long it takes. As the standard of living increases in the offshore sector we in America will start to become more competitive just because the offshore jobs will start getting more money for what they are doing. And like someone stated earlier there will come a time when the consumers either don’t have jobs or the jobs won’t pay as much.

So in my mind equilibrium will be reached sooner or later. Of course how long it will take is anyone’s guess.

But just to give you an idea the Taiwanese markets can no longer compete like the Chinese and the Indian market can and they have been making stuff for America for years. Pretty soon the established Chinese markets will be competing with the up and comers in their own country and I think that is where it will get interesting.

Another thing that could happen is all these low income countries that are whoring there workers out to make cheap product are polluting the hell out of their land. They might in the next 5 to 10 years start really having some major fallout from these bad social practices.

[MBG]

Originally Posted by miljnor I think that the job market will eventialy I think that the job market will eventually turn around, it just how long it takes. As the standard of living increases in the offshore sector we in America will start to become more competitive just because the offshore jobs will start getting more money for what they are doing. And like someone stated earlier there will come a time when the consumers either don’t have jobs or the jobs won’t pay as much. So in my mind equilibrium will be reached sooner or later. Of course how long it will take is anyone’s guess. But just to give you an idea the Taiwanese markets can no longer compete like the Chinese and the Indian market can and they have been making stuff for America for years. Pretty soon the established Chinese markets will be competing with the up and comers in their own country and I think that is where it will get interesting. Another thing that could happen is all these low income countries that are whoring there workers out to make cheap product are polluting the hell out of their land. They might in the next 5 to 10 years start really having some major fallout from these bad social practices.

so that means that how many countries have to get on the equilibrium with us? mexica, south amera, africa!! haha it just goes on and on....

[Caprirs]

Miljnor is right about these poorer countries setting themselves up for serious environmental and human rights fallout both globally and within their own borders. Remember the controversy directed at companies doing business with South Africa when Apartheid was still policy. Similar backlash will arise when Americans become aware of conditions in other countries where American businesses have outsourced jobs. Already, there is a feeling in the US that consumers don't want to talk to someone in India about trouble with their computer or cell phone.

China will eventually come under global pressure to begin regulating its emissions if it wants to sell its goods on the world market. China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and others are very poor and large scale pollution will not make those places better. Currently, they are all too busy trying to drag themselves into the 1950s technology-wise to worry about the consequences. They all have a lot to learn and by the time they figure it out, the Western countries will be decades ahead.

Make sure that you keep your own level of knowledge and experience up by taking classes occasionally. Also attend trade shows like IMTS and Westec and walk around everything even if it's not your field. You'd be amazed at how much you can learn by asking a couple questions at those trade shows. These forums are great places to share info and learn from others. If you have the opportunity to visit other manufacturing shops, go and absorb what you can. And most important, do not rely on your employer to take care of you in the long run as it is no longer financially feasible for him to do that anymore.

[MBG]

thanks guys!

[Evodyne]

I'm tired so this might be a little fuzzy. IMO since our politicians have decided to play in a world market we will see a lower standard of living than we are used to. Some examples:

At the end of the big three (Ford, Chevy, Chrysler) days in the U.S. GM was living large and it's UAW (United Auto Workers) union agreements reflect that. In today's import-dominated market lower cost yet better built (I've a Toyota and a Chevy-the GM's fit and finish ARE scond rate) foreign imports are putting the squeeze on GM. Not to mention land yaghts and $3.00/gallon gas. But GM can't compete-their labor costs and health care costs (negotiated in a by-gone era) have them in a stranglehold. From a business point of view it's a cut and dried decision: break the unions. Or at least force them into serious concessions on wages and healthcare. Never happen you say. Bull! It's happening right now. Delphi Electronics just filed bankruptcy citing, guess what, wages and benefits, as the reason. But Delphi is a subsidiary of...can you guess...GM! GM is using Delphi as a test: they are going to get into court and try to get lower wages forced on the unions via court order-contracts be damned. And it it works what road will GM take with the UAW? It's a no-brainer.

Take a look at Mittal Steel's structure in the attached picture. They bought Inland Steel. When the current contracts for the steelworkers are up, does anyone doubt that Lakshmi N. Mittal, Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Officer, will move to cut wages and benefits citing lower wages in the rest of his facilities.

US Steel is in the same boat. Their Gary Works facility is also getting quite old and in need of a major facelift. Their approach is expansion...overseas. They have a plant in Slovakia and, I believe, Poland, among others. The statistic on the Slovak workers vs. U.S workers was sobering: nearly a 20:1 pay skew! Again, what do you think will happen to the steelworker's wages and benefits over time in the U.S?

There are also lots of "invisible" jobs like medical transcription and programming that have moved to India and other countries. They have an American "Front End": you don't even KNOW the work has left our shores.

China? Everyone wants a piece of THAT pie. Do you think their human rights abuses magically disappeared when they got favored nation trading status? Hardly. But in a rush to get our share of their wealth we politely chose to look the other way. But that money is going into corporate pockets, while the displaced jobs hurt the everday US citizens.

Nope, when you play in a world market you can ONLY be competative when you can compete at the level of the lowest common denominator. Who's that today? China? Korea? Hmmm. Gotta get to work-I need to finish my fish and rice, put on my sandals, and hop on my bike. Bye!

Evodyne

Disclaimer: the above are my opinions only-not in any way related to the site!